Friday, February 6, 2009
Volatility and Interest Rates
For some time I have indicated my concern that, unless interest rates came down, this economy and the stock market would have a difficult time moving forward without excess volatility.
Since the latter part of January, we have seen interest rates on both core and high-yield bonds rising again. The move has not been as significant as it was last year, but the trend is not what I'd like to see. During this same period, we have seen the stock market trending downward. In the last couple of days we have seen high-yield rates on bonds dropping a bit and the stock market moving upwards. What is most interesting is that this has come at a point when unemployment has been reported at 7.6% and the number of the newly-unemployed is the highest since 1974!
What we don't know is whether government actions will have an impact on interest rates and business in the short run or whether it will take several years. Once again, we must remain patient and maintain the belief that things will get better eventually. As businesses become leaner through layoffs, it is concerning that more and more people become unemployed. We need to see efforts directed at creating new jobs and getting people back to work!
Ed