A Market Correction or a New Bear Market?

After the events of the past two years, it is understandable that the markets are so volatile. As I have indicated previously, the expectation of a market correction has been in the works since the latter part of March and most certainly after mid-April. My own expectation was for a brief correction of about 7%. When the markets get to a point where they are overbought, then a correction eventually comes. The question is when something will happen and what will trigger the change. In this case, the debt of the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) was the catalyst worldwide to bring about a rapid descent. At the beginning of 2010, the S&P 500 opened at 1117 and by April 23rd it had reached 1217, up 100 points or almost 10%. Between April 24th and May 7th,the market went down to 1111 for a drop of about 8.7% and below the opening at the beginning of the year. The bond market acted in a similar fashion with interest rates decreasing until the scare from the PIIGS moved interest rates up and the value of bonds down. The action over the weekend to bolster the euro, with a commitment of $1 trillion, was a bold and needed move to keep the financial markets and economies of the world moving away from the recession. The impact worldwide has been dramatic and good. But how about the fundamentals? So far, 381 companies that make up the S&P 500 have reported earnings, and of these 77% have topped estimates. The S&P 500 index is trading at 13.5 times forecasts for earnings during the next four quarters while the long term average for this multiple is 16.4%. This would imply that there is still room for stock price growth. All of this was before Friday's meltdown. If the PIIGS situation remains stable, then it is likely the markets will resume their path higher. I am not complacent at this time because we in the US need to do something about our own Federal red ink! I am hopeful that we will see the light and move to reduce the deficit spending once the broad economy is out of the woods. For now, we continue on a positive path with very large job creation in April (I was thinking 200,000 but instead it was 290,000), inventories being replenished and businesses increasing spending. The signs for a recovery are looking good! Ed